UBS Investment Bank’s chief China economist predicts further easing for the property market, greater fiscal and quasi-fiscal expansion to boost infrastructure investment, and a small policy rate cut

UBS has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for the country to 5.4% for 2023 and 5.2% for 2024

High-frequency data around the Lunar New Year improved over 2022, but some indicators remain well below where they were before the pandemic

Stabilizing growth is the top priority, with measures to boost the real estate sector and a supportive tone for non-SOEs, foreign investors and online platforms

The upcoming meeting will likely emphasize more support for economic growth, deemphasize ‘zero Covid,’ and offer additional aid for the property sector

Friday’s announcement not only eases tight restrictions on quarantine, but also serves to pave the way for a major policy shift

The Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to shed more light on the government’s short-term policy strategy, which will likely maintain its supportive stance

The much-anticipated 20th Congress of the Communist Party set the tone for the coming years, with a focus on the long term, greater emphasis on security and ‘green’ and ‘high quality’ development still top priorities

Export momentum softened on a sharp slowdown in trade growth in August

The much-awaited July meeting called for the best result possible, a sign that the government is de-emphasizing the ambitious growth goal set in March

The yuan could weaken further against the U.S. dollar in the coming months, ending the year at 6.9

Beijing may fine-tune its Covid policy gradually if met by staunch public resistance or severe economic losses, but when and how this change could occur remains the biggest macro uncertainty

Top legislature may still set a goal at ‘above 5%’ backed by more supportive fiscal policy and infrastructure investment

The biggest uncertainty is what lies ahead for the pandemic and efforts to curb its spread, which could bring surprises to domestic consumption recovery and export strength

China’s Politburo meeting on Monday sets the policy tone for stabilizing growth and shows that the senior leadership has recognized downward pressures on the economy

Embattled Chinese developer’s debt problems are aggravated by a property sector already weighed down by weakening fundamentals and policy tightening

Given the leadership’s determination to contain property-related imbalances and risks, the Chinese government has grown more tolerant of a market slowdown

Real estate makes up too big a share of household wealth for home prices to plunge without the government offering policy support

The authorities will likely take steps to increase coal supplies and adjust power tariffs to ease the shortfall

Ensuring that the developer can actually finish its ongoing projects will be crucial to safeguarding faith in the property sector and social stability